Vanessa Abrahamson Blog: Video Twists Advice on Delta Variant and Vaccination

SciCheck Digest

An epidemiologist recommended that people get the COVID-19 vaccine because some evidence suggests an unvaccinated person who gets the delta variant is “twice as likely to require hospital treatment” than someone infected with the alpha variant. But a Facebook video twists that advice to claim that he said vaccinated people would be twice as likely to be hospitalized.

All of the authorized vaccines are effective at preventing symptomatic disease.

According to the results of the phase 3 trials, the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines had an efficacy of 94% or higher, which means your approximate risk of getting sick is cut by 94% or more if you are vaccinated. It’s important to keep in mind that the effectiveness of the vaccines outside the controlled setting of a clinical trial is typically somewhat lower. A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found these two vaccines were 90% effective in real-world conditions, two weeks after the second dose, and 80% effective two weeks after the first dose. The study monitored 3,950 health care personnel, first responders and other essential workers for 13 weeks.

Johnson & Johnson’s phase 3 trial began in late September, nearly two months after the Pfizer and Moderna trials and shortly before a new variant of the coronavirus emerged in South Africa. Globally, J&J reported an efficacy of 66.1% in preventing moderate to severe COVID-19 and an efficacy of 85.4% in preventing severe or critical COVID-19. But efficacy was higher in the U.S. population (72% efficacy in preventing moderate to severe disease and 85.9% efficacy in preventing severe or critical disease) than in South Africa (64% and 81.7% efficacy in preventing moderate to severe or severe/critical disease, respectively).

Data from the Moderna trial also demonstrate that the vaccine protects against severe COVID-19. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine probably does as well. But because so few participants in that trial developed severe COVID-19, this hasn’t yet been conclusively shown. The J&J trial showed 100% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 that would require medical intervention — meaning hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or a life support machine.

Although the trials show the vaccines protect against symptomatic disease, what is still unknown is whether these vaccines protect against infection with the coronavirus, and if not, whether they can prevent someone from spreading the virus to others. (See our video on the distinction between virus and disease.) However, the CDC has said that “a growing body of evidence” suggests those who are fully vaccinated are “potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others.”

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Studies indicate that currently available vaccines are largely effective against the delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19. But a video circulating on Facebook wrongly tells viewers the opposite.

The video is part of a series of similar webcasts from Jen DePice, a Philadelphia-area chiropractor who has used Facebook to advocate against the vaccines. Another video in the series, for example, is pinned to the top of her organization’s page with this message: “JUST SAY NO…to the Jab!“

The video we’ll address here has been viewed 48,000 times and has garnered comments such as, “Best news as I’ve not been VAC & have no plans to be.”

In the video, DePice claims that those who are exposed to the delta variant are “twice as likely to require hospitalization if the person was vaccinated.”

There is no support for this statement, and, as we noted, studies have shown the COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the U.S. are largely effective against the delta variant.

Although DePice says that her claim is based on research “from Harvard,” we could find no such study, and she didn’t respond to a message on her Facebook account asking for further details.

However, it appears that she misrepresented an interview with a Harvard University professor.

The post accompanying the video links to an interview Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health posted with William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology.

In that July 8 interview, Hanage said (emphasis added), “Delta’s greater virulence means that unvaccinated people who become infected will be sicker and the burden on the health care system will be greater. Evidence suggests, for example, that an unvaccinated person with Delta infection is roughly twice as likely to require hospital treatment than a person infected with the previously dominant variant.”

Hanage’s point is supported by a Scottish study published in June that found the risk of hospitalization was about twice as high for those with the delta variant compared with those with the previously dominant alpha variant, but the finding was preliminary.

As we’ve explained, it’s not yet settled whether the delta variant causes more severe disease than other versions of the virus. Public Health England, for example, posted an assessment on July 23 saying that the delta variant appeared to increase the risk of hospitalization relative to alpha, but that there was a “low” level of confidence about this.

But, as far as DePice’s claim is concerned, it appears that she has misrepresented what Hanage said about what group is at higher risk to be hospitalized.

She also failed to convey what Hanage said about the value of vaccination against COVID-19 generally.

Hanage clearly advised in that interview: “Get vaccinated if you are not already.”

He explained that the high transmissibility of the delta variant means that the virus can spread faster than the rate of vaccination around the world. This variant also appears to produce high viral loads early in infection, he said, “which may mean that it’s even more infectious during the period when people don’t yet realize they’re infected.”

A July study from China that has yet to be peer reviewed found that the viral load for those infected with the delta variant was 1,000 times higher than for those who had the original strain of the virus.

Hanage also noted in the interview that the delta variant appears to be more able to cause “so-called breakthrough infections in vaccinated people.” But, he said, the resulting infections are “comparatively mild.”

In the U.S., the delta variant accounted for 83% of COVID-19 cases for the two weeks ending July 17, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated. And on July 16, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, said at a press briefing that more than 97% of those who were hospitalized were unvaccinated.

As we said, the vaccines appear to be effective against the delta variant, but several studies have emphasized the importance of getting the full dosage of the vaccine if two shots are required, as is the case for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Editor’s note: SciCheck’s COVID-19/Vaccination Project is made possible by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The foundation has no control over our editorial decisions, and the views expressed in our articles do not necessarily reflect the views of the foundation. The goal of the project is to increase exposure to accurate information about COVID-19 and vaccines, while decreasing the impact of misinformation.

Sources

Sakay, Yasemin Nicola. “Here’s How Well COVID-19 Vaccines Work Against the Delta Variant.” Healthline.com. 22 Jul 2021.

Bernal, Jamie Lopez, et al. “Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant.” New England Journal of Medicine. 21 Jul 2021.

Feldscher, Karen. “The danger of the Delta variant.” T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 8 Jul 2021.

Sheikh, Aziz, et al. “SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness.” The Lancet. 14 Jun 2021.

Li, Baisheng, et al. “Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.” medRxiv. 23 Jul 2021.

Reardon, Sara. “How the Delta variant achieves its ultrafast spread.” Nature. 21 Jul 2021.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID Data Tracker — Variant Proportions. Accessed 26 Jul 2021.

Walensky, Rochelle. “Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and Public Health Officials.” Whitehouse.gov. 16 Jul 2021.

The post Video Twists Advice on Delta Variant and Vaccination appeared first on FactCheck.org.

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