Monday, November 30, 2020

It's Not a Self-control Trouble, You're Just Not Engaging Your Pupils


Here’s a dirty little secret about teachers that few people care to admit: Many teachers with poor classroom management aren’t strong instructional.

I would never assume that a teacher without control of their classroom simply cannot teach (although that is true for some). But in my experience, teachers who have struggled with their classroom management weren’t the best instructional. I’ve observed some of these teachers and rarely were the students the problem.

Some teachers did a poor job of making their content relevant. Others weren’t excited about their own content and it transmitted to the students.

Some of those teachers were just boring.

To see students disengaged from the lesson—talking to each other, horsing around, playing, dozing off, and even insubordinate when called out—made sense. Yet, the tendency was to deal with the student as an immediate remedy rather than support or even remove the teacher, until the damage had already been done.

I am not advocating that a teacher be removed from the classroom immediately after one poorly executed lesson. Nor do I advocate for the discipline or removal of students who fail to render the desired behavior as a result of the teacher’s poorly executed lesson.

Instructional leaders within the building must (and often do) support teachers with resources and methods on how to be better instructors and managers.

But if you work in a school, you know that little fires can, and do, take the time and attention of instructional leaders away from the work of supporting teachers in real time. Professional development sessions or modules on classroom management serve to remedy teacher struggles—because a classroom that runs like a well-oiled machine is important.

However, in my experiences as both a former teacher and administrator, much of the support provided for teachers in the area of classroom management is centered on how to make your classroom a space of discipline so that teaching can happen, when it should be the opposite.

Classroom management should center on making your classroom an engaging space that makes for engaged students who are disciplined. The former focuses on disciplining students while the latter focuses on discipling them.

I get the argument that teachers must learn how to discipline students, as well as how to model the behavior they desire out of their students. Yet I believe that, with respect to teaching students, the onus shouldn’t be on behavior, but rather instruction.

The adaptation in lifestyle as a result of the coronavirus pandemic has reaffirmed that thought.

Prior to the pandemic, if my children became restless and fidgety, my wife and I would load them in the car and take them bowling, to the trampoline arena and even to the arcade (yes, those still exist). But in an attempt to keep them safe, we have the basketball court in the driveway, their bikes and the swing set in the backyard. As you can imagine, they got bored with those items rather quickly.

I was saving money during quarantine; my sanity, not so much. But my children are 8-, 5- and 4-years-old—it’s on us, their parents, to engage them with intellectual and physical activities for their growth. Engaging the kids also cuts down on misbehavior. Between all the sight word bingo, Uno, freeze tag and hide-and-go-seek, my wife and I are exhausted, but so are the kids. Those activities make the evening wind down a bit easier and our time with them more enjoyable.

I wouldn’t advise teachers to play hide-and-go-seek or freeze tag in the classroom. But I would advise teachers to work on their instructional methods and techniques if they seek to be better classroom managers. Administrators really don’t have time to put out little fires that teachers themselves could prevent with engaging their students better.

This isn’t to say every child is going to be engaged at every second of the lesson. However, delivering a lesson in the context of established norms, with content of interest, relevant resources and a modern day scenario to help internalize knowledge will go a long way to minimizing student misbehavior.

Rules are important for the classroom. But starting off with rules may send kids the wrong message. It may say, “Look, this teacher is strict,” when all you’re trying to do is create the parameters for a fun learning environment. A few years back, my first day of seventh grade ancient world history, I started the class with a question. I asked, which is better, the supermarket or corner bodega? Kids started calling out and arguing with one another. The class got quite boisterous.

I raised my hand and got everyone’s attention. I told my kids, “If you want to debate about this, here’s how we do it…” I gave them rules, parameters and procedure. I divided them into teams, gave them time to research and we debated for 30 minutes. From that day forward, on debate days, students knew their roles and what to do. I simply sat in my chair and said, “We can begin.” Students bought into the rules because they bought into the work.

Next, I had to make the content interesting, even if it wasn’t on its face. With the same history class, I had to make the empires of Rome, Kush, Persia, Songhai, Mali and Egypt palatable. Connecting the past with the present, one activity I gave students was a meme/GIF contest with each empire we learned about. Students had to research the best meme or GIF that depicted the empire or peoples of our study in a modern day event, i.e., white actors portraying Egyptian people to expose cultural appropriation.

The school provided students textbooks, but instead we used texts written by Black and Latinx scholars to discuss the ancient civilizations of the ancient Near East, Africa, the Mediterranean, the Americas and the ancient East. With the help of our librarian, students learned culturally relevant online sources to find articles they could access on their laptops and on their cell phones.

Rather than always have them complete a worksheet or answer questions, I’d create a debate topic surrounding the culture of civilizations—for example, should parents arrange the marriages of their children? Students were required to use their knowledge of a civilization to support their arguments, and their classmates could call them out if their evidence was wrong or didn’t apply to the argument. It made for spirited debates. It also helped their ability to internalize information.

All this required extra work on my part. However, my classroom ran smoothly and my students had fun. I built up enough capital in the classroom that my kids rarely gave me a hard time, whether I monitored the hallways or the cafeteria at lunch.

Disciplining children is a part of educating them, but discipline is also a part of discipling them. Educators discipline, but also teach, mentor, counsel and build relationships with students. To do all of those things, teachers must instruct students in engaging ways that connect the content with a purpose. Teachers who don’t may find themselves walking out of the classroom for good.

Here’s another dirty little secret: maybe they should.

This post originally appeared on Philly’s 7th Ward.

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This is a real letter from an NHS trust that dealt with no Covid-19 deaths

We’ve been asked about and have seen posts which claim to show a Freedom of Information (FOI) request regarding deaths in the South West Yorkshire NHS Partnership. 

The question submitted for an FOI reads:

“I am trying to gather the information regarding to actual deaths with in [sic] the trust due to covid 19 For the period of February 2020 to September 2020.”

And the response: “South West Yorkshire NHS Partnership Foundation Trust has not had any deaths due to Covid-19.”

Reuters have confirmed that this is a real FOI and the information here is correct.

The lack of Covid-19 deaths in this trust can be explained by it being a “specialist NHS foundation trust that provides community, mental health and learning disability services”. As the trust does not provide the type of care needed by people seriously ill with Covid, it’s unlikely they would have dealt with any deaths.

This is not to say that Yorkshire has not experienced any Covid deaths. According to government data, up until the end of September, the English region of Yorkshire and the Humber recorded 5,012 deaths where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate. So while people in Yorkshire have died of Covid-19, it has not been while they were in facilities run by the South West Yorkshire partnership.

Read more: https://northdenvernews.com/

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  • Comfortable stretch fabric for tight fit
  • Easy to put on & remove
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  • Materials: 3-layer melt-blown non-woven PPE
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The Education Exchange: Adding Transparency and also Equity with Weighted Student Financing

A research professor at Georgetown University and director of the Edunomics Lab, Marguerite Roza, joins Paul E. Peterson to discuss a new Edunomics Lab study on weighted student funding, which investigates the spending patterns and student outcomes in school districts.

The complete study is available here.

The post The Education Exchange: Adding Transparency and Equity with Weighted Student Funding appeared first on Education Next.

Colorado News




Paul Misleads on Natural Infection and COVID-19 Vaccines

In a tweet, Sen. Rand Paul misleadingly suggested that immunity from “[n]aturally acquired” COVID-19 was better than that from a vaccine. But it’s not known how immunity from the two sources compares — and the entire point of a vaccine is to offer immunity without the risk of getting sick.

Paul made his claim in a Nov. 17 tweet in which he listed interim efficacy figures from two ongoing vaccine clinical trials and then provided his own calculation of the “effectiveness” of natural infection with the coronavirus.

In a follow-up tweet, the Kentucky Republican shared a link to a New York Times article about a new unpublished study that found evidence of some immunity to the coronavirus in most people for at least six months. He commented: “Why does the left accept immune theory when it comes to vaccines, but not when discussing naturally acquired immunity?”

Paul, who has previously spread misinformation about childhood vaccines, has inaccurately argued during the COVID-19 pandemic that parts of the U.S. have reached herd, or community, immunity because of preexisting immunity to other coronaviruses. Herd immunity is when enough people in a population are immune to prevent spread of the disease.

Public health experts, however, have said that threshold is still a ways off — and that allowing the virus to spread uncontrolled would lead to many needless deaths. A better approach, they say, is to stave off the spread of the virus until a vaccine is widely available.

A Paul spokesperson told us that the senator was not suggesting that immunity through natural infection with COVID-19 is better than getting immunity from a vaccine, but rather, “highlighting research that says immunity is real.”

We were directed to subsequent tweets, including one in which Paul said he was not “arguing against vaccines” but that COVID-19 patients “can celebrate immunity if lucky enough to survive,” as well as Paul’s support for alternative options to speed along access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Still, the efficacy figure Paul provides for natural COVID-19 infection isn’t accurate. And the juxtaposition of the numbers implies a kind of superiority of natural infection over vaccination — a dangerous notion, given that contracting the virus poses a serious risk.

As University of Florida biostatistician Natalie Dean pointed out in response to Paul’s tweet, “The key distinction is that vaccines are a SAFE way to achieve immunity. Getting sick with COVID-19 is inherently unsafe. We would never ever tolerate a vaccine that carried even a fraction of the risks of natural infection.”

Bogus ‘Efficacy’ Figure

While Paul purports to offer a precise percentage for how “effective” natural infection is relative to vaccines, experts told us that the comparison is premature and faulty. 

The efficacy figures for the vaccines come from interim results released in press releases by the two companies, Pfizer and Moderna, and refer to the ability of the vaccines to prevent symptomatic COVID-19 infection in phase 3 trials. (The day after Paul’s tweet, Pfizer announced additional data reflective of the full trial, which showed 95% efficacy.) But the number for natural infection is a broad-strokes calculation Paul made based on reinfections.

“We don’t really know how many reinfections there have been,” virologist Angela Rasmussen said in a phone interview, adding that many reinfections have not been confirmed and that efficacy of naturally-acquired immunity “isn’t a thing.”

“It’s just really ridiculous to try to use the way that efficacy is calculated in clinical trials for vaccines and apply that to epi[demiologic] data across the entire population,” she said.

Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, agreed.

“Clearly, there are people who can be reinfected. As a general rule, it’s usually more mild reinfection,” he told us. But, he added, “most people aren’t tested, so you don’t really know who’s getting reinfected and who isn’t.”

It’s true that reinfections so far appear to be rare, which bodes well both for a vaccine and for people who may have immunity as a result of infection. But no one knows yet how the immunity from each will compare.

Most vaccines do not offer quite as good protection from a pathogen as a natural infection will — but of course, a person has to survive or suffer through the infection to get that future protection, sidestepping the entire function of a vaccine. It’s therefore largely irrelevant whether or not vaccine immunity is superior to that from natural infection.

There are some instances in which a vaccine does elicit a better immune response. That’s the case for vaccines against human papillomavirus, or HPV; tetanus; Haemophilus influenzae type b; and pneumococcus.

Whether COVID-19 will be one of them remains to be seen. Rasmussen said it was possible, but still hypothetical at this point. “We don’t really know. We only know that these vaccines typically induce levels of neutralizing antibody that are comparable to the higher levels of neutralizing antibody that’s been observed in convalescent patients,” she said, referring to the type of antibody that can prevent cells from becoming infected with the virus.

Based on the performance of the shingles vaccine, Offit speculated that some of the later-arriving vaccine candidates that include powerful adjuvants, or chemicals that are added to vaccines to boost the immune response, such as those from Sanofi-GSK or Novavax, might be better than natural infection.

Immunity Unknowns

For both the vaccine and natural infection, important questions about COVID-19 immunity remain.

“We do know that most people who get COVID-19 do develop some kind of measurable antibody response, but we don’t know what that really means in terms of protection against either reinfection or whether you will mount protective immune responses upon a re-exposure,” said Rasmussen.

As a result, public health officials have cautioned that for now, even if people have previously contracted COVID-19, individuals should still follow the standard recommendations. 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example, advises all people, including those who have recovered from COVID-19, to continue to physically distance, wear masks, wash their hands and avoid crowds.

Similarly, the CDC notes that it doesn’t yet know “if or when” it will stop recommending masks or physical distancing after vaccination.

This is in contrast to Paul’s assertion that people “can celebrate immunity.” In a Nov. 12 interview on Fox News, Paul used similar language and advocated that people drop these precautions. 

“We have 11 million people in our country who’ve already had COVID. We should tell them to celebrate,” he said. “We should tell them to throw away their masks, go to restaurants, live again, because these people are now immune.”

A huge question is how durable immunity will be. Although the study Paul highlighted suggests that most people will be protected for at least six months — and might mean they are protected against severe disease for many years — it’s still not definitive, and doesn’t mean that those timeframes will apply to everyone.

Shane Crotty, an immunologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology and one of the senior authors of the paper, noted on Twitter that the team observed a wide range of immune responses in people, including a lack of a measurable response in some people. 

“That led us to speculate,” he said, quoting his manuscript, that “‘it may be expected that at least a fraction of the SARS-CoV-2-infected population with particularly low immune memory would be susceptible to re-infection relatively quickly.’”

The CDC, notably, has said that people who have had COVID-19 may still benefit from a coronavirus vaccine. And some experts envision a future in which multiple vaccines are on the table for everyone. 

“It strikes me as not unlikely that we will learn what the duration of protection is and people will need — whether naturally infected or vaccinated — to have booster shots over some period of time, once a year, once every two years, once every five years,” Barry Bloom, an immunologist and global health expert at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said in a press call.

Why Naturally-Acquired Herd Immunity Is a Bad Idea

In his tweet about the new immunity study, Paul also suggested that Democrats were somehow denying realities about immunity from natural infection.

“Why does the left accept immune theory when it comes to vaccines, but not when discussing naturally acquired immunity?” he asked.

Scientists, however, objected to Paul’s characterization.

“I don’t think anybody’s dismissing [immunity following natural infection]. I think what people are saying is, it’s a bad idea as a strategy for dealing with infection,” said Offit, who noted that 30% to 40% of the population could be considered at high risk for COVID-19.

Both Offit and Rasmussen also pointed out that historically, there isn’t a lot of precedent for building herd immunity through natural infection.

“People were getting smallpox for millennia,” Rasmussen said, and “the herd immunity threshold was never really reached.”

The much safer way of getting to herd immunity is to use a vaccine instead, especially when multiple candidates are on the horizon.

“Trying to achieve herd immunity [without a vaccine] would result in hundreds of thousands more — if not millions — of unnecessary deaths and debilitating illness for millions more,” Rasmussen said. “So I think it’s not really right to talk about vaccine-induced herd immunity versus naturally-acquired herd immunity without mentioning the fact that one of them has a very, very large price tag in human lives and quality of life attached to it.”

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. 

The post Paul Misleads on Natural Infection and COVID-19 Vaccines appeared first on FactCheck.org.

Best local news: https://www.northdenvernews.com

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  • Comfortable stretch fabric for tight fit
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Specs
  • Color: white
  • Materials: 3-layer melt-blown non-woven PPE
  • Product dimensions: 1"H x 8"L x 5"W
  • 3D Comfort design
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Sunday, November 29, 2020

President-elect Joe Biden Thanksgiving Address


President-elect Joe Biden delivered a Thanksgiving address from Wilmington, DE. "We need to remember, we're at war with the virus not with one another. Not with each other." Read More

Bogus Report Claims Philly Mob Manager Stuffed Tally Boxes

Quick Take

A dubious website claims without evidence that Philadelphia mob boss Joseph “Skinny Joey” Merlino stuffed ballot boxes for Joe Biden and the Democrats — and would testify about the scheme in exchange for a presidential pardon. Merlino’s attorney denies the claim, which originated on a website operated by a self-described “pro-Trump” political consultant.


Full Story

Since President Donald Trump’s baseless allegation at the Sept. 29 presidential debate that “bad things happen in Philadelphia” during elections, the city of Philadelphia has been the target of false claims of voting irregularities, as we’ve reported.

The shade cast on the city took another twist on Nov. 14, in a story published by The Buffalo Chronicle, a website operated by a right-wing political consultant that is regularly found to publish disinformation. The Chronicle article — which cites no named sources — claims South Philadelphia mob boss Joseph “Skinny Joey” Merlino and associates stuffed ballot boxes with 300,000 fraudulent votes for President-elect Joe Biden.

The story claims the scheme was supported by Democrats in the Philadelphia elections office and netted $3 million for Merlino and his associates. It also claims Merlino might be willing to drop a dime on the operation in public hearings in exchange for a pardon for all his past crimes from Trump — setting the stage for Pennsylvania’s Republican-controlled legislature to deny certification of the state’s 20 electoral votes.

But Merlino — who served a 14-year prison sentence for extortion and illegal gambling — has called the claims “crazy,” according to his lawyer. A spokesman for Philadelphia election officials said the story is “ludicrous.” And a Philadelphia mob expert said it “doesn’t make any sense.”

Still, the bogus tale went viral on Nov. 16 after Jordan Sekulow, the son of Trump attorney Jay Sekulow, tweeted it with the admonition: “Follow all leads.” The story was picked up by far-right websites, such as Gateway Pundit, and spread on Facebook and other social media platforms. One Facebook user, @TheHipHopPatriot, posted a video calling the story “breaking news.”

According to unofficial results, more than 604,000 votes in Philadelphia went to Biden and over 132,000 to Trump. Lawyers for Trump’s campaign, led by his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, have been trying without success to challenge the vote in Philadelphia and other Pennsylvania counties.

Even Giuliani, who has made no headway on discrediting the Pennsylvania election in court, alluded to the story in an interview on Fox Business on Nov. 17, but said it was “far-fetched.”

The Chronicle’s story says the scheme involved the production of 300,000 raw ballots, which were filled in with Sharpie markers in a 60-hour operation at two homes before being dropped off “in non-descript boxes” at the vote counting center at the Pennsylvania Convention Center.

“It’s just ludicrous to suggest anyone but authorized election officials could bring ballot boxes into the Convention Center,” Kevin Feeley, spokesman for the City Commissioners Office, which oversees elections, told us in a phone interview.

He said stories like this are “a disservice to all the decent, hard-working people who strive to make our elections transparent.”

The story claims that besides a presidential pardon, Merlino’s motivation for exposing the operation included multimillion-dollar book deals and a clean record so he could fish and hunt on federal land and even get a job with the National Park Service.

“I’ve never heard of him hunting or fishing or wanting to go to a wildlife preserve,” George Anastasia, an author and former reporter on organized crime at the Philadelphia Inquirer, told us in a phone interview. He noted that Merlino is currently living in Florida on supervised release for a gambling conviction.

Anastasia said he first thought the Chronicle story was satire. “It stretches credulity. It does not make any sense,” said Anastasia, who could not recall mob involvement in election-day shenanigans in the past.

Merlino’s attorney, John Meringolo, did not respond to our request for comment, but he told the New York Daily News that after reading the Chronicle story, Merlino said, “these people are crazy.”

“My client categorically denies all the allegations and Joey would rather die than ever be a snitch,” Meringolo told the New York Daily News.

The Buffalo Chronicle and its publisher, Matthew Ricchiazzi, a self-described “pro-Trump” political consultant in western New York, have a reputation for spreading disinformation.

Last year, a joint investigation by BuzzFeed and the Toronto Star found that Ricchiazzi “published unsigned articles based on unnamed sources that allege backroom dealings at the highest levels of the Canadian government” during Canada’s election. “Several of the stories have been deemed false or unsupported by news organizations,” the report said.

BuzzFeed News and the Star said their investigation “confirmed that Ricchiazzi once offered to publish positive or negative coverage of political candidates for a fee.” The fees: $200 for a positive story, $400 for a negative story about an opponent.

Twitter has suspended both the Chronicle’s and Ricchiazzi’s accounts, the news organizations reported.

The CBC’s news program, “The National,” also took a look at the Chronicle during a segment on the impact of fake news on the Canadian election, sending co-host Adrienne Arsenault to Buffalo, only to discover the site’s listed address was an abandoned building.

The Chronicle’s fabricated story about Merlino again highlights the need for readers to check the source of a story and its content, and to see if the information is supported by solid reporting using legitimate, identifiable sources.

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org is one of several organizations working with Facebook to debunk misinformation shared on social media. Our previous stories can be found here.

This fact check is available at IFCN’s 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Click here for more.

Sources

Associated Press. “Reputed mobster ‘Skinny Joey’ Merlino leaves Philly for Florida.” Pennlive. 5 Jan 2019.

Brown, Stephen Rex and Larry McShane. “President Trump’s lawyer puts Philadelphia mobster ‘Skinny Joey’ Merlino at center of election conspiracy.” New York Dailey News. 17 Nov 2020.

“Election interference is happening in Canada: What you can do to stop it.” CBC News. Nov 2019.

“FactChecking the First Trump-Biden Debate.” FactCheck.org. 30 Sep 2020.

Feeley, Kevin. Spokesman, Philadelphia City Commissioners. Telephone interview with FactCheck.org. 18 Nov 2020.

George Anastasia. Author on organized crime. Telephone interview with FactCheck.org. 18 Nov 2020.

“Giuliani: Two established ‘vehicles’ ready to go to the Supreme Court.” Fox News. 17 Nov 2020.

Lytvynenko, Jane et al. “The Canadian Election’s Surprise Influencer Is A Buffalo Man Targeting Canadians With Viral Disinformation.” BuzzFeed and Toronto Star. 18 Oct 2019.

Philadelphia Election Results. Office of the Philadelphia City Commissioners. Accessed 19 Nov 2020.

Spencer, Saranac Hale. “Overblown Claims of ‘Bad Things’ at Philly Polls.” FactCheck.org. 3 Nov 2020.

 

The post Bogus Report Claims Philly Mob Boss Stuffed Ballot Boxes appeared first on FactCheck.org.

Stay informed: https://thecherrycreeknews.com/category/latest/

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  • 3D Comfort mask design
  • Convenient earloop design
  • Comfortable stretch fabric for tight fit
  • Easy to put on & remove
Note: These masks are not FDA approved nor are they N95. These masks are tested to meet the standards for Chinese KN-95. Tests confirmed almost 90% of particulate pollution, bacteria and viruses were successfully filtered when the mask was used. 20x more effective than cloth masks.
Specs
  • Color: white
  • Materials: 3-layer melt-blown non-woven PPE
  • Product dimensions: 1"H x 8"L x 5"W
  • 3D Comfort design
  • KN95 PRC Standard (Similar to NIOSH N95)
  • CE 0194
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President Trump Phones into Pennsylvania Republican Hearing on 2020 Election


President Trump phones into Pennsylvania Republican Hearing on 2020 Election

Full video here: ht […]
Read More

Dr. Anthony Fauci on Transition to Biden Administration


Q: "If asked, would you serve on a Biden Administration Coronavirus Task Force?"

Dr. Anthony Fauci: "Of course. The answer is absolutely."

Read More

No ‘Landslide’ for Biden, Either

Provided President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College margin of victory holds — and we have seen no reason so far to believe it will not — it will be the same margin won by Donald Trump in 2016.

That would leave Biden (as it did Trump) in the bottom third when ranking presidents by the percentage of Electoral College votes.

Back in 2016, Trump wrongly called his victory a “landslide.” Now, some are taking a page out of Trump’s book to claim Biden won in a landslide. But it wasn’t accurate for Trump then, and it’s not accurate for Biden now.

Here’s how Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond, who will be Biden’s director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, put it on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Nov. 22:

Richmond, Nov. 22: This was a fair election. Joe Biden won by over 6 million votes in the popular vote. 306 electoral votes, which is the exact same number that Donald Trump had that he called a landslide. So, Joe Biden won with a mandate and a landslide and now it’s time to transition.

The problem, of course, is that Trump’s 2016 electoral margin of victory — while convincing — was not a landslide by historical standards, as we wrote on Nov. 29, 2016.

The same is true of Biden’s Electoral College margin of victory. According to the media’s projected winner of every state, Biden captured 306 electoral votes, compared to 232 for Trump. That’s the same margin won by Trump in 2016 (though he ultimately lost a couple faithless electors). And as we said back in 2016, that only put Trump in 46th place out of 58 U.S. presidential elections.

“That total was not a landslide then, and it still isn’t,” John Pitney, a professor of American Politics at Claremont McKenna College, told us via email. “It is a clear, significant, legitimate victory, but is toward the lower end for electoral vote shares of winning candidates.”

Democrats still have plenty to be happy about, Pitney said, noting that:

  • Biden’s raw popular vote total was the largest in history.
  • Biden’s popular-vote percentage was the highest for a challenger since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932.
  • Biden won a larger percentage of the popular vote than Trump in 2016, Bush in 2004 or 2000, Clinton in 1996 or 1992, Reagan in 1980, Carter in 1976, Nixon in 1968, Kennedy in 1960 or Truman in 1948.
  • Biden was the first challenger to defeat an incumbent since Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in 1992.
  • And when the count is final,  Biden’s percentage will probably be a little higher than Obama’s in 2012 and Trump’s will be a little lower than Romney’s.

When we wrote about the historical margin of Trump’s victory back in 2016, all of the state results had been certified, and at this point less than half of the states have certified their election results. And as we did in 2016, we again add the disclaimer that these calculations assume Electoral College electors will vote according to who won a plurality of votes in their state, and that recounts will not overturn any of the state results. (Oddly, the Republican National Committee on Nov. 19 tweeted a video of attorney Sidney Powell making the baseless claim that, “President Trump won by a landslide,” and promising to “prove it.” The Trump campaign since has said that Powell is not a member of the Trump legal team.)

But provided the numbers hold up, as we said, it would be a relatively close win for Biden by historical comparison of Electoral College margins of victory.

According to current vote tallies, Biden leads Trump in the popular vote count by just over 6 million votes. By comparison, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton by nearly 2.9 million votes, making Trump one of five U.S. presidents to have lost the popular vote.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver notes that Biden’s current 4 percentage point lead in the popular vote — which Silver projects could grow to about 5 percentage points once all the votes are counted — is already a wider margin than Barack Obama’s 2012 win against Mitt Romney, though not as large as Obama’s 2008 win over John McCain, making Biden’s the second-largest popular vote margin since 2000.

“For the popular vote, an old rule of thumb is that a ‘landslide’ is 55 percent or greater,” Pitney told us. “Biden will get 51 percent, maybe a little more, but no ‘landslide’ by customary standards.”

Biden has avoided calling his victory a landslide, or anything like that, though he did claim via Twitter on Nov. 6 that the record number of votes for him in an American election gave him a “mandate for action.”

It’s not unusual for presidents to claim an electoral “mandate,” even when the margin of victory is razor thin.

Two days after George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 with an Electoral College victory of 286 to 251, one of the closest in modern history, he told reporters that, “when you win, there is a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view.”

“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it,” Bush said.

But Trump embellished well beyond that in 2016, calling his win “a massive landslide victory.”

Biden campaign officials have been quick to pick up on that, as Biden-Harris Transition Senior Adviser Kate Bedingfield did in an interview on “Fox News Sunday” on Nov. 22.

“He won 306 Electoral College votes, which is … the same outcome from 2016 that Donald Trump called a landslide when he won 306 Electoral College votes,” Bedingfield said.

That’s true. It’s also true that neither Trump nor Biden won in a “landslide.”

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. 

This fact check is available at IFCN’s 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Click here for more.

The post No ‘Landslide’ for Biden, Either appeared first on FactCheck.org.

Get more news: https://thecherrycreeknews.com/

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Saturday, November 28, 2020

National Thanksgiving Turkey Pardoning Ceremony


President Trump participates in National Thanksgiving Turkey Pardoning Ceremony https://c-span.org/video/?478374-1/president-trump-pardo […]
Read More

Ad Hyperlinks Warnock to ‘Defunding the Authorities’

A conservative group’s deceptive TV ad suggests that Democrat Raphael Warnock supports defunding the police. He has said multiple times that he doesn’t.

The ad, from the American Crossroads super PAC, features Harris County, Georgia, Sheriff Mike Jolley accusing Warnock of being against police officers.

“Warnock is an anti-police extremist,” Jolley says in the ad, which debuted Nov. 24. “That’s why he’s backed by defund the police radicals. Defunding the police is crazy. It’s dangerous. While we’re stopping real criminals, he’s calling us thugs. Warnock cannot stand up to the radicals because he’s one of them.”

But Warnock doesn’t support efforts to defund law enforcement. He also didn’t call all police officers “thugs,” as we wrote when fact-checking a similar attack from Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who Warnock hopes to unseat in one of Georgia’s two upcoming runoff elections. In that case, he was addressing the police killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. 

This is actually the second ad American Crossroads has run this month linking Warnock to “defund the police radicals.” But Warnock is not “one of them,” as the ad featuring Jolley could lead viewers to believe.

Warnock for months has been saying he opposes defunding the police, the controversial concept of eliminating or reallocating funds from police budgets. Some individuals and groups began pushing to defund the police in the wake of the killing of George Floyd, a Black man who died while being detained by Minneapolis police officers in late May.

When asked about his position in a June 25 Sirius XM radio interview (at the 13:30 mark), Warnock said: “I do not believe that we should defund the police. I do believe that we should responsibly fund law enforcement. We need to reimagine policing and reimagine the relationships between law enforcement and communities. We certainly need to demilitarize the police, so that we can rebuild trust between the police and the community.”

Several weeks later, in an Aug. 20 WGAU radio interview (at the 6:25 mark), Warnock again said: “No we should not defund the police. We should certainly reimagine the relationship between the police and communities. That’s something that I’ve fought for for years and I’ll continue to fight for.”

After that, Warnock tweeted on Oct. 10: “Let me be clear, I oppose defunding the police. But we have to respect law enforcement enough to hold them accountable.” And during a Senate candidates’ debate later that month, he reiterated that “I do not think that we should defund the police.”

“What we could use a senator doing is putting forward the kind of reform that we need in our criminal justice system. We need to get rid of qualified immunity [from civil lawsuits], we need an independent review process when civilians die at the hands of police. We can do that and at the same time appreciate the great work that our police officers do,” he said.

‘Thugs and Gangsters’

As for Jolley’s claim that Warnock called police officers “thugs and gangsters,” that’s a reference to a quote we’ve written about before.

In a 2015 sermon, Warnock, the senior pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, talked about police in Ferguson, Missouri — where Michael Brown, an unarmed, 18-year-old Black man was shot and killed by a white officer in August 2014 — “showing up in a kind of gangster and thug mentality.” He added, “You know you can wear all kinds of colors and be a thug. You can sometimes wear the colors of the state and behave like a thug.”

But Warnock wasn’t talking about all law enforcement, his campaign told us.

“This is very clearly in reference to a specific incident in Ferguson, Missouri and the behavior of some in the Michael Brown shooting, not at a comment on all police officers,” the campaign clarified in an email.

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. 

This fact check is available at IFCN’s 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Click here for more.

The post Ad Links Warnock to ‘Defunding the Police’ appeared first on FactCheck.org.

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Inspecting the Truths worldwide of Trump

I guess I picked the right year to take up fact-checking.

I had been in journalism for a very long time. I had run a national magazine, overseen news operations at newspapers in many cities, covered Washington during the Watergate era, written columns about the media for a national newspaper. But this assignment was new.

Sure, I had written columns about the phenomenon of news outlets checking the assertions of political figures and ascertaining which were true and which were false. And I was a fan. For too long, I felt, news operations would run stories saying X said this, Y said that — and leave it there. And leave readers, viewers and listeners completely unenlightened about what was true.

I have long believed that taking that next step — figuring out where the truth lies, and reporting it — was an important public service. As long as that judgment was based strictly on facts, with absolutely no connection to the political leanings of the writer and/or the fact-checking outlet.

So when I got the opportunity at FactCheck.org — a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania that has been checking facts since 2003 — I jumped at it.

And what a time to do it. With President Donald Trump on the ballot.

I started in February and am wrapping up at the end of the month. So I was on the roster for an unforgettable presidential campaign in the midst of a pandemic.

Trump is a fact checker’s dream, or nightmare, depending on how you look at it. A nightmare for his off-the-charts indifference to the truth. A dream for the same reason. There are just so many nonfacts to check.

Trump’s disregard for the truth kept us and other fact-checkers very busy. The Washington Post’s Fact Checker, which maintains a cumulative total,  found that as of Sept. 11 Trump had made 23,035 false or misleading statements in 1,331 days. That amounts to a full employment act for fact checkers.

Day after day, I read transcripts of Trump’s appearances at rallies and White House briefings. Two things stood out: First the sheer volume of falsehood, misinformation and sheer nonsense in so many of them. Second, the fact that no matter how many times many of the false claims were debunked, by us and by other fact checkers, they would show up again and again and again.

Which leads to one of the disheartening aspects of the fact-checking business. No matter how many times false information is discredited, if the the perpetrator doesn’t care that it’s wrong and enjoys repeating it, not much can be done.

A related frustration: Ours is a bitterly polarized world where people on each side of the divide get their news from different sources. Someone who reads the New York Times and watches CNN and MSNBC will be encountering information very different from those who read Breitbart and watch Fox News or Trump favorite One America News Network.

And Trump, of course, has waged continuous war on the traditional news media, dismissing their work product as “fake news” and deriding the press as an “enemy of the people.” And many Trump loyalists now accept that false characterization as gospel. So many of them tend to disregard the work of traditional media. And proponents of the president too often put the findings of fact checkers in the same bucket.

In our current political climate, there is a tendency for too many people to believe what they want to believe. Al Schmidt, a Republican city commissioner in Philadelphia who helped oversee the ballot counting there, told CNN’s John Berman, “One thing I can’t comprehend is how hungry people are to consume lies, and to consume information that is not true.”

The late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan famously said, “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” But he did not and could not have anticipated a world where some people clung to “alternative facts.” That is a serious problem for a democracy.

There were also times when President-elect Joe Biden needed fact checking, just not as many. While he made mistakes, he did not share Trump’s flagrant disregard for the truth. And he wasn’t around nearly as much.

There was a period when Trump did daily briefings, ostensibly about COVID-19. And there were the rallies and, of course, the tweets.  Meanwhile, Biden maintained a low-profile, often staying in his basement, as Trump liked to say. That was, of course, because of the pandemic. But it also turned out to be a smart political strategy. Rope-a-dope, if you will. Stay out of the line of fire and let Trump wear himself out throwing roundhouse right after roundhouse right, often punching himself out in the process.

In October we did twin pieces examining the false and misleading statements the candidates made on the hustings between Oct. 12 and Oct. 16. There were 46 from Trump, we reported in “Trump on the Stump.” Trump had spoken for more than eight hours at six rallies over the five days. By contrast, we wrote about nine false claims in “Biden on the Stump.” During the same period, Biden had spoken for about 2 hours and 46 minutes at six events.

Writing for FactCheck.org meant a couple of big adjustments. One, the rigor was exceptional. Almost everything in a story had to be supported by a link to the source. And whenever possible to an original document, not a news account.

I was no stranger to stringent standards. I had been an editor at the Washington Post and the Miami Herald and USA TODAY.  When I ran American Journalism Review, a now defunct national magazine, I read everything at least five times before it was published. So did other editors. But this insistence on links and original documents, on backing everything up, was impressive to me. I used to say that you couldn’t say “a” or “the” without a link.

And I had to watch my language. When I was a columnist at USA TODAY, my mission was to express opinions, to take strong positions, to be provocative, to have attitude. And to write with color and flair, maybe occasionally with some snark. But FactCheck.org plays it straight down the middle. There is no room for loaded language, even barely loaded. I learned this early on when I described a certain property in Florida as “Trump’s beloved Mar-a-Lago.” The “beloved,” it was gently suggested, needed to go.

And the commitment to fact-checking carried over to our own work. We checked each other’s stories before we posted them.

As I examined the claims of the candidates, I learned a lot about obscure topics I hadn’t anticipated researching, such as the Puerto Rican pharmaceutical industry and the Maine lobster harvest. One of my favorite recurring sagas was what transpired when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to San Francisco’s Chinatown neighborhood in late February.

Here’s the back story: As we have written, Pelosi went to Chinatown on Feb. 24 in an effort to bolster the neighborhood’s restaurants and shops. Their business had fallen sharply in the wake of the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which originated in Wuhan, China, late last year.

The visit came three weeks before six Bay Area counties implemented shelter-in-place restrictions. On the day of Pelosi’s visit, Trump tweeted this about the virus: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA.”

Later, Pelosi’s visit became a recurring target of criticism at Trump appearances. He variously said Pelosi held a “rally” in Chinatown, was having or wanted to have “parties” or a “street party” there and encouraged people to go to a “big parade.” In fact, Pelosi never mentioned parties or rallies, and the “big parade” — the Chinese New Year Parade — took place on Feb. 8, two weeks before Pelosi went there.

In May, Trump shifted to references to Pelosi “dancing in the streets of San Francisco in Chinatown.” She didn’t.

I’ve had a great ride at FactCheck.org. My colleagues are terrific. I’ll miss the place, and them. And I might need some reprogramming. After reading all of those Trump transcripts, I find myself repeating snippets in conversation. I’m hoping that after treatment, I’ll stop saying things like, “We built the greatest economy in the history of the world before China sent us the plague.”

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. 

The post Checking the Facts in the World of Trump appeared first on FactCheck.org.

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Friday, November 27, 2020

Danish Study Doesn’t Prove Masks Do Not Work Versus the Coronavirus

Q: Did a recent study in Denmark show that face masks are useless for COVID-19?

A: No. The study found that face masks did not have a large protective effect for wearers — not that masks provide no protection at all or don’t offer benefits to others. 

FULL QUESTION

Are masks proven to be useless for COVID-19?

FULL ANSWER

News of the results of a recent randomized controlled trial in Denmark testing a face mask intervention has led some to conclude that masks are ineffective against the coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2. 

But scientists say that’s the wrong takeaway — and even the authors of the study say the results shouldn’t be interpreted to mean masks shouldn’t be worn.

The trial evaluated whether giving free surgical masks to volunteers and recommending their use safeguarded wearers from infection with the coronavirus, in addition to other public health recommendations. The study didn’t identify a statistically significant protective effect for wearers, but the trial was only designed to detect a large effect of 50% or more. And the study didn’t weigh in on the ability of masks to prevent spread of the virus from wearers to others, or what’s known as source control, which is thought to be the primary way that masks work.

As a result, the most that can be said is that this particular study, under the conditions at the time in Denmark, didn’t find that the face mask intervention had a large protective effect for wearers — not that masks provide no protection at all or don’t offer benefits to others. 

Social media posts nevertheless latched onto the study to claim that the trial “proves masks offer NO protection from COVID” or that masks “don’t work,” as several posts claimed. Another post inaccurately described the results as “conclusive,” despite the fact that the authors specifically wrote that their findings were “inconclusive.”

Other articles shared on Facebook failed to provide sufficient context for the study, with one headline from the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity reading, “Your Face Mask Is Not Protecting You.” Yet another from Sharyl Attkisson, who has previously spread misinformation about vaccines, misleadingly states that there was “no statistically significant difference when it comes to wearing a mask or not outside the home to prevent Covid-19 spread.”

Again, the study only assessed the personal protective effect of a mask intervention, not the potential for masks to hamper spread of the virus to others.

The Danish trial, known as the Danish Study to Assess Face Masks for the Protection Against COVID-19 Infection, or DANMASK-19, was published in Annals of Internal Medicine on Nov. 18 along with two editorials to provide more context to the findings.

It’s the first randomized controlled trial involving face masks and COVID-19 to report results. Around 6,000 people who left their homes for at least three hours a day participated, with approximately half being given a box of 50 surgical masks and being told to wear a mask whenever outside of their homes, while the other half was not given masks or such a mask recommendation.

The study was conducted at a time when Danish authorities were not recommending masks to the general public, so most people both groups would encounter were not likely to be masked. Both groups were told to follow national public health guidance, which included physical distancing, avoiding crowds and washing hands.

After a month, 42 people in the mask group, or 1.8%, had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, as measured by at-home finger-prick antibody tests, a positive PCR test result or a COVID-19 diagnosis, compared with 53 people, or 2.1%, in the control group.

While fewer people in the masked group became infected — equivalent to an 18% reduction in risk — the difference was not statistically significant, meaning the result may have come about by chance. Given the observed number of infections in each group, the plausible effect of the mask intervention ranged all the way from a 46% decrease in infection to a 23% increase.

It’s this negative result that some have interpreted to mean that masks are ineffective. But that’s not how the authors frame their findings.

Bundgaard, et al.: Our results suggest that the recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in mask wearers in a setting where social distancing and other public health measures were in effect, mask recommendations were not among those measures, and community use of masks was uncommon. Yet, the findings were inconclusive and cannot definitively exclude a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection of mask wearers in such a setting. It is important to emphasize that this trial did not address the effects of masks as source control or as protection in settings where social distancing and other public health measures are not in effect.

Elsewhere, the authors noted that the data were “compatible” with a less than 50% degree of self-protection and emphasized that their results “should not be used to conclude that a recommendation for everyone to wear masks in the community would not be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, because the trial did not test the role of masks in source control of SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

University of Hong Kong infectious disease epidemiologist and mask researcher Benjamin Cowling told us he was not surprised by the findings and said it was important to distinguish between an absence of evidence and evidence of absence on the utility of masks.

“In the Danish mask study, their results are consistent with maybe 20% protection conferred by face masks, which is in line with my estimates for influenza,” he said in an email. 

“While some readers seem to conclude from the Danish study that masks are not effective, I would only conclude from the Danish study that masks are not /highly effective/, which we already suspected,” he continued, adding that it does not mean that masks are ineffective. “Even 20% protection would be very valuable when we are trying very hard to slow down COVID transmission as much as we can with a range of public health measures.”

The paper’s lead author, Dr. Henning Bundgaard of the specialty hospital Rigshospitalet and Copenhagen University Hospital, told Forbes much the same.

“Even a small degree of protection is worth using the face masks,” he said, “because you are protecting yourself against a potentially life-threatening disease.”

An accompanying editorial penned by the editor-in-chief of the journal and colleagues explained that while the study suggests that the personal protective effect of masks is “likely to be small,” the study “does not disprove the effectiveness of widespread mask wearing.”

On the contrary, the editorial argues that together with the other existing data in support of masks, the “results of this trial should motivate widespread mask wearing to protect our communities and thereby ourselves while we await more definitive evidence during this pandemic.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an updated scientific brief earlier this month that for the first time emphasized the ability of masks to protect wearers, based on lab studies that find masks can block virus particles and some observational and epidemiology studies.

The other editorial — by experts with the public health initiative Resolve to Save Lives, including former CDC director Dr. Thomas Frieden — highlighted several limitations of the study.

For one, the trial was done in April and May when there was relatively little virus circulating in Denmark, which might have made it more difficult to pick up a protective effect of mask wearing.

Not everyone in the mask group followed through on the advice to wear a mask, either, with 46% of people self-reporting that they wore the masks “as recommended”; 47% “predominantly as recommended”; and 7% “not as recommended.”

Most critically, Frieden and colleagues suggested that the antibody tests used to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infection could have led to a fair number of false positives, especially given the low prevalence of the coronavirus at the time. Even with those false positives evenly distributed between the two groups, that would have biased the result to be negative.

Other scientists at Stanford University and George Washington University previously expressed concern with the study design, including the fact that the study was not large enough to identify protective effects less than a 50% reduction in risk, and the likelihood that any results would be misinterpreted.

The takeaway about masks, then, is still quite similar to the earlier public health advice, which is that people should wear them, but not assume that they will be protected. That means continuing to follow all public health guidelines, including washing hands and staying physically apart from other people whenever possible.

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, 202 S. 36th St., Philadelphia, PA 19104. 

Sources

Bundgaard, Henning et al. “Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial.” Annals of Internal Medicine. 18 Nov 2020.

CDC. “Scientific Brief: Community Use of Cloth Masks to Control the Spread of SARS-CoV-2.” Updated 20 Nov 2020.

Laine, Christine et al. “The Role of Masks in Mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Another Piece of the Puzzle.” Annals of Internal Medicine. 18 Nov 2020.

Frieden, Thomas R. and Shama Cash-Goldwasser. “Of Masks and Methods.” Annals of Internal Medicine. 18 Nov 2020.

Cowling, Benjamin. Professor and Division Head, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Hong Kong. Email to FactCheck.org. 20 Nov 2020.

Rosenbaum, Leah. “Lead Researcher Behind Controversial Danish Study Says You Should Still Wear A Mask.” Forbes. 18 Nov 2020.

Godoy, Maria. “Wear Masks To Protect Yourself From The Coronavirus, Not Only Others, CDC Stresses.” NPR. 11 Nov 2020.

Haber, Noah et al. PubPeer comment on “Face masks for the prevention of COVID-19 – Rationale and design of the randomised controlled trial DANMASK-19.” 8 Sep 2020.

McDonald, Jessica. “COVID-19 Face Mask Advice, Explained.” FactCheck.org. 6 Apr 2020.

CDC. “Coronavirus Disease 2020 (COVID-19): How to Protect Yourself & Others.” Updated 4 Nov 2020.

The post Danish Study Doesn’t Prove Masks Don’t Work Against the Coronavirus appeared first on FactCheck.org.

Get more news: https://www.thecherrycreeknews.com/

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  • Convenient earloop design
  • Comfortable stretch fabric for tight fit
  • Easy to put on & remove
Note: These masks are not FDA approved nor are they N95. These masks are tested to meet the standards for Chinese KN-95. Tests confirmed almost 90% of particulate pollution, bacteria and viruses were successfully filtered when the mask was used. 20x more effective than cloth masks.
Specs
  • Color: white
  • Materials: 3-layer melt-blown non-woven PPE
  • Product dimensions: 1"H x 8"L x 5"W
  • 3D Comfort design
  • KN95 PRC Standard (Similar to NIOSH N95)
  • CE 0194
  • FFP2 - EN149 Filtration Level