Allison Pearson tweets misleading stats about Covid hospital patients

Such ignorance amongst the media asking questions at Press briefing.
Seven day daily average of COVID cases is 26,000
Seven-day average of patients admitted to hospital with COVID: 433
That’s 0.5%
It’s a tiny consideration now among vast problems facing NHS

— Allison Pearson (@AllisonPearson) July 12, 2021

Columnist Allison Pearson tweeted on Monday that only 0.5% of patients with Covid-19 have been hospitalised, looking at the recent weekly average of cases and hospitalisations.

This is a misleading calculation to make because of the lag between cases and hospitalisations, and, regardless, the calculation has been done incorrectly.

It’s unclear but it appears Ms Pearson was looking at the data for England. When she tweeted, the seven-day average daily case count was around 26,000 (taken on 4 July).

She compares this with the seven-day average of patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 (which was 444 on 7 July, the latest data when she tweeted).

You can’t compare these numbers to calculate the hospitalisation risk of Covid. It takes time for symptoms to develop to the point someone with Covid may need to be hospitalised, meaning, they are likely to be hospitalised later than the date they were first tested.

We’re also not sure where the 0.5% proportion figure has come from either, as (although as noted these figures shouldn’t be compared) 433 is 1.67% of 26,000, not 0.5%.

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