Death rate back to early 2000s levels

A post on Facebook claims that 2020 saw the UK’s sixth highest death rate going back to 1999. 

This is broadly true, but the statistics shown could use some context.

The table pictured in the post claims to show the number of deaths each year in the UK, but these are the numbers for England and Wales only. Contrasting these with the UK population size means the death rates in it are wrong too. 

There were 608,002 deaths in England and Wales in 2020, not 604,045 as the post claims which is the number of deaths registered in the 52 weeks to Christmas Day including a few days in 2019 and also missing off a few days at the end of the year. 

The 608,002 deaths figure works out as around 10.2 deaths per 1,000 people, higher than any year since 2003.

In 1999, the rate was 10.7, in 2000 it was 10.3, and from 2001-2003 it was 10.2.   

The post also claims that 2020 has had the 6th highest death rate in the past thirty years. 

In fact, the death rate was higher every year between 1991 and 2000 than in 2020, so 2020 had the joint-11th highest death rate over the past three decades.

Over the past two decades, life expectancy has been increasing and so the death rate has been falling. 

2020 saw a sharp reversal to that trend, with the death rate returning to where it was in the early 2000s. 

Another measure used to compare death rates is the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR). 

The Office for National Statistics says: “ASMRs take into consideration both the population size and age-structure allowing us [to] compare over time.  

“You would expect more deaths in a population with more old people and ASMRs even out the population differences so that you compare like with like. 

“Looking recently, we’ve experienced fluctuating but historically low mortality rates. 

“But the provisional age-standardised mortality rate in 2020 was 1043.5 deaths per 100,000 population around 8% higher than the five year average. 

“This is the highest it has been in more than a decade (since 2008).”

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